Tag: economics

Some thoughts on Seattle’s growth  

Carl Setzer

Lately I’ve been considering growth. Seattle’s been growing in a huge number of ways: jobs, cost of living, rents, population. This growth changes things: traffic, greater economic fragility, more economic stress on nearly everyone. I

I read an article yesterday saying that San Francisco’s poverty line income was a bit above $114k. Seattle is getting close. 

With this growth and pressure on finances, I see this region’s density increasing. I expect the single family home will slowly vanish as land costs continue to climb. Eventually, multi-family will be the only way to earn enough return on land investment for builders. 

I expect well see lots of Seattle neighborhoods becoming predominantly multi-family, actually a region of apartments condos stretching from the center out to the burbs. 

I do wonder if there’s an equilibrium. Will we get to a point where things will stabilize? 

What do you think? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments. 

Housing market concerns for greater Seattle 

Carl Setzer

I’ve read several articles the past few days that give me pause. The rise of housing prices is the center. And the fact they’re outpacing wage growth deeply concerns me. 

There’s a significant population who’s losing their ability to afford basic subsistence in this region I love. Many friends of mine, who’ve lived here their whole lives, and some for generations, who are getting priced out. 

I know the many see very few basic entitlements: life, liberty, and perpetual servitude. 

In seriousness, I wonder what we can do. Market forces are hard to resist. We’ve tried things like rent control and minimum wage increases, to varying degrees of success. Our ability to game the system are limited. We tend to end up with unintended consequences countering our efforts. 

I firmly believe there are solutions out there which will provide stability for the less highly compensated, without spiking home price inflation somewhere else. 

I work to not be a cynical free market catalyst. Tis often a challenge. I shall grab a hold of hope and embrace optimism. 

Some Recommended Regional Real Estate Reading

Carl Setzer

Here are few articles that feature important information about the greater Seattle area:

Addicted To Debt?

Carl Setzer

Came across this article recently:

Americans Feast on Debt

Of particular concern:

  • Debt is reaching new highs: “total household debt achieved a new peak in the first quarter of 2017, rising by $149 billion to $12.73 trillion-$50 billion above the previous peak reached in the third quarter of 2008”

Now, I’ve also read some pieces about the effectiveness of various policies in convincing people to incur more debt. I am left to wonder, as I was back about a decade ago, at what point does all this collapse? There comes a point where servicing debt load consumes all available income. Or, in the case of a sudden economic shift, drops below and things fail.

America currently only is able to see as far as the next quarterly earnings report, if that far. Our lack of vision and inability to see citizens as people instead of just consumers to exploit, helps drive this phenomena further.

At some point, we need to step away from a consumer-driven economy. It is not sustainable, and is only going to cause long-term pain and, for many, calamity. We’ll need to learn, as people, as individuals, to value things other than purchases. Don’t use shopping to alleviate boredom, or loneliness, or…. We need to balance spending with saving, find value in something other than things, than accumulated stuff.

Let’s not wait for policies to incentivize savings. Nor for marketing campaigns. Here’s the time to innovate, for ourselves and for our families. Perhaps, by making long-term thinking cool, we can truly change the world.

Opportunities and All That

Carl Setzer

I’ve had two conversations today that have me thinking about the area’s economic opportunities.

  1. Seeing the potential from storage rental facilities, with RV spaces in particular. I know a builder who had nearly 100% occupancy shortly after pre-sales started. Complete hearsay, but I still trust it. Well, enough to be willing to do further research.
  2. Storefronts in the City of Everett. Now, after some brief research, looks like commercial real estate vacancies are down. Yet, while walking along Colby a week or so ago, there’s quite a bit of storefront space vacant. I think Everett has a lot of potential, and that it will materialize at some point. I’d like to see a more vigorous effort to promote the downtown of the city. Especially as an alternative to Seattle. But, that’s just my notion.

Anyway, there are other potentials out there. What are you seeing?

Lake Stevens and the Future of Snohomish County 

Carl Setzer

Spent the day running errands. One of them had me at the City of Lake Stevens’ planning offices as two manufactured “portables” were delivered. Quite the tight squeeze along the tree lined street. But the drivers were skilled and nothing was injured save a few stray leaves. 

This got us talking about change, growth and the area. Our region’s density has changed dramatically. I remember coming out to Lake​ Stevens, way out in the country. Waaayyy out there. It seemed quite the excursion to go up and enjoy pizza at Up The Creek (the business is gone, but the building remains). That was something I always looked forward to, and something I remember years later. 

As the region grew, as decent paying jobs were getting created by the dozen, people started flowing into the region. Housing prices climb through Seattle. And affordability pushed outwards. Add the addition of the Everett Navy HomePort, which brought additional bodies to Snohomish County. Lake Stevens amenities make it a charming and desirable place to live. All of that pushed people out there. Adding traffic, the need for stores and transit. 

I expect the demand for homes there to grow boldly over the next few years. Prices in Seattle and Bellevue are extreme, livability collapsing. Snohomish county offers great living with ease of access to Seattle, which will get better as light rail builds out. 

Of course, I’m biased: I’ve lived in the region most of my life. And I don’t intend to live anywhere else. 

This is an exciting time for the region. I’m pleased to be part of it all. 

Is Nationstar about to completely rebrand itself?

Carl Setzer

As an agent who’s part of the Xome network and has worked with Nationstar with several REO listings, I read “Is Nationstar about to completely rebrand itself?” with interest. Will Xome be able to offer this unique service environment in such a way as to catch fire? I wonder. It’s a novel idea, this end-to-end, full service idea. Novel enough that it’s no sure bet, either way. I give Nationstar/Xome points for innovation and risk.

With players like Zillow, Trulia, and Redfin changing things up, it’ll be interesting if Xome can get enough traction to grab enough mindshare. My team and I thinks that there’s a place at the new real estate table for them. They are a big player and have plenty of resources to put against this. I certainly wouldn’t write them off.

Oh, the stock market and emotion

Carl Setzer

Was just reading a lending market update which included a note about the puzzling behavior of the stock market last week. Faced with a number of positive economic indicators, the market sold off pretty heavily. Well, with my time at Fortune 500s, I’ve seen this before. I learned a long-time ago that Wall Street, the stock-markets and prices of such things is driven, on a day-to-day basis primarily by emotion. This also feeds into the quarter by quarter mentality of most stock valuation. Time and time again, in most markets, it’s those with long-term views and understanding that do well. This is true in real estate as well. If you can shift your view out 5, 10, 20 years in the future, you can escape the  variability of these emotionally based fluctuations.

Some Thoughts On Jefferson County Real Estate

Carl Setzer2 Comments

Just got this blurb from some agents out there in Jefferson County:

“Jefferson County current Real Estate sales have increased 28% since 2014 with prices staying stable.”

Having the real estate market stabilize in lovely Jefferson County is particularly pleasing to me. The economy out there has been slower to recover. Now, the economy out there isn’t as vibrant, thus not as volatile. But the collapse of the timber industry really hurt things. That’s been the bigger driver for that area than the real estate bubble crash.

I love Port Townsend and it’s Victorian architecture. Plus, it’s quirky charm and the characters who call it home. You can get bumper stickers that say “We’re here because we’re not all there: Port Townsend”. That ready should sum the place up.

Considering Sustainability

Carl Setzer

Sustainability has been a significant part of my journey for years. Perhaps the most obvious element was my time at Starbucks working in environmental affairs, but that’s really only a piece. Also, my time with the Episcopal Church, where I interacted closely with the Earth Ministry greatly expanding my learning. Just two of the more significant parts of my life. I’ve been exploring this idea for decades.

My goal is greater than just understanding sustainability, but finding ways to live it. Really, defining it is the easy part. It’s living it that’s tough. I’m paraphrasing my friends Brian and Mary Natrass with this definition: a sustainable society is one that takes no more then it returns to the ecosystem. Balance. And though the term “sustainble” gets thrown about a great deal nowadays, I’m not aware of any element or system in modern society that meets that description. Our consumer economy is, actually, the exact opposite. Continued exploitation returns nothing to our systems. Single use and dispose fails, too. There’s so much opportunity to progress and grow.

All may be distressing, but not cause for despair. Humans are highly adaptable. We will adjust and survive. My goal is for something beyond survival. Rather, thriving; with a new definition of thriving. That what I shall explore now.